Experian Automotive is predicting that over 1.8 million vehicles that are coming off-lease will hit the market between April and the end of the year. Data suggests that approximately 79% of consumers with leases ending in the next two to four months will choose a new vehicle lease, while the remaining 21% will decide on a used one. This means that a large inventory of used vehicles may be available in the near future.

Car Models

Of all off-lease vehicles, the Toyota Camry is expected to be the most commonly returned at an estimated amount of over 25,000 units. The Honda Civic follows at just under 25,000 units, while the Honda Accord, Toyota Corolla, and the Honda CR-V make up the rest of the top five. The following ten models account for 28% of all vehicles that are expected to be returned:

Off-Lease Cars

1. Toyota Camry
2. Honda Civic
3. Honda Accord
4. Toyota Corolla
5. Honda CR-V
6. Ford Escape
7. Nissan Altima
8. Ford Fusion
9. Lexus RX
10. Toyota RAV4


Experian has further broken down off-lease vehicle data, showing where these cars are most prevalent. Analysts have found that New York is the most popular metropolitan area for off-lease vehicles, with an estimated 307,000 units to be returned by the end of the year. Here are the top 10 metro areas:

1. New York
2. Los Angeles
3. Detroit
4. Miami-Fort Lauderdale
5. Philadelphia
6. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
7. Cleveland-Akron-Canton
8. Boston-Manchester
9. Chicago
10. West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce

Off-Lease and New Lease Rates Compared

Data analysts from Experian have compared the count of off-lease and current lease vehicle types. Figures show that there are more new crossovers, pickups, and SUVs being leased than older models being returned. The opposite is true for upscale vehicles and small economy cars.  There has been no significant difference in the number of van and premium mid range vehicle leases.

More New Leases

  • CUV - Entry
  • CUV - Premium
  • Pickup - Full-Size
  • SUV - Entry Level
  • SUV - Lower Mid Range

Fewer New Leases

  • Alt Power Hybrid
  • CUV - Mid Range
  • Mid Range Lower
  • Mid Range Standard
  • Small Car - Economy
  • Upscale - Near Luxury
  • Upscale Luxury

Unchanged New Leases

  • Mid Range - Premium
  • SUV - Premium Large
  • Van – Mini

Leasing vs. Purchasing

Infocore.com data predicts that 58% of consumers with leases ending in the next three or four months will choose to lease another vehicle. Data also shows that the other 42% will make a car purchase instead. In summary, vehicle leases are predicted to remain strong for months to come.

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